# Thinking, Fast and Slow  ## About - Author: Daniel Kahneman - Title: Thinking, Fast and Slow - Tags: #books ## Highlights > Extreme predictions and a willingness to predict rare events from weak eyidence are both manifestations of System 1. It is natural for the associative machinery to match the extremeness of predictions to the perceived extremeness of evidence on which it is based-this is how substitution works. And it is natural for System 1 to generate overconfident judgments, because confidence, as we have seen, is determined by the coherence of the best story you can tell from the evidence at hand. Be warned: your intuitions will deliver predictions that are too extreme and you will be inclined to put far too much faith in them. (Page 194) ---